Steel plate spot market will continue to be stable

by:ChangZeng     2021-02-22
Recently, the domestic steel products market is weak and crude steel output is hesitating. The output has hit new highs from time to time. The pressure on steel plates has not decreased. The consumption of steel mills has increased significantly. The domestic steel market will continue to operate under pressure. Meet the needs of downstream users' replenishment market before the National Day. Increasing contradiction between supply and demand limits the rebound of steel prices. Of course, macro factors are also important factors in the steel market. After my country’s foreign trade growth experienced a rebound for two consecutive months, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that foreign trade has unexpectedly declined, especially the export growth rate is far below market expectations. China's data has weakened significantly, suggesting that the situation in the later period cannot be pessimistic. If imports and exports continue to decline, then the Chinese economy may also face downside risks. In addition, although the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee held in the fourth quarter has become the focus of the industry, under the current background, reform will be the top priority and it is difficult to issue detailed policies. The macro outlook will be relatively stable during the year, and it is unlikely that serious favorable policies will be introduced. From this, it is estimated that the steel price in the fourth quarter will be strong. The low point of Q345B steel plate is estimated to be relatively probable, and then it will show a slow upward pattern. The steel plate is expected to show a cross-year rise again, and the cumulative increase is considerable. Compared with the external market, the port spot is harder. As previously expected, the rise in steel prices will eventually miss the 'Golden NineThe fourth quarter, which started with the 'Silver TenJudging from the growth rate of manufacturing PMI or urban fixed asset investment over the years, the performance in the fourth quarter was mostly flat. For example, the performance of the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter was stable but weak, even if it showed an increase, the strength was still weak. As far as the construction industry is concerned, construction is not possible in some parts of the north in winter, which drags down the foundation and real estate. The growth rate of urban fixed asset investment in the fourth quarter tended to weaken. From this point of view, the demand for steel is difficult to place high hopes, and the overall estimate is in a state of sullenness. In general, the demand release was not satisfactory, coupled with the sharp drop in temperature in the northern region, the progress of the project was affected, and the lack of external demand caused the contradiction between supply and demand to increase in the later period. In addition, the weakening of capital support and the unstable economic recovery may lead to a tightening of monetary policy in the later period; therefore, the domestic steel plate price may continue to drop in the remaining time of the author. In recent years, my country’s environmental problems have become more and more serious. Previously, the form of economic development at the expense of the environment and extensive resource consumption has also attracted the attention of the country’s senior leaders; especially this year, the country has vigorously promoted in-depth changes and strived to transform the economic structure; At the same time, environmental management has been selected to an unprecedented level; and the iron and steel industry, as a pillar industry, is also a representative industry with high pollution and high energy consumption, and it will inevitably produce profound changes. Then, my country's steel consumption and steel prices will face more challenges and opportunities. With the help of the rapid economic development in the previous decades, my country's steel industry has grown rapidly, from relying on the indigenous method of ironmaking in the 1950s and 1960s, to the current world's largest steel producer and consumer country. In the process of rapid development, my country's steel industry was once a 'rich' opportunity that everyone yearned for. However, in recent years, under the general background of steel demand in my country's economy, the contradiction of overcapacity of steel has eroded the cost of high-cost input and entered a stage of meager profit or even loss.
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